The Houston Texans bring up the rear in the NFL again in 2022 but are at least out from under the heavy shadow of Deshaun Watson’s drama… sort of.
The Texans’ NFL odds peg them as the worst team in the league, dwelling on the bottom of the futures markets and lurching into 2022 with a season win total of 4.5 (Under -110). Houston is under promoted head coach Lovie Smith and promoted offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, who have fewer quality ingredients than a college kid’s refrigerator.
Considering the differences in the team’s lookahead lines from book to book, no one – not even the all-seeing oddsmakers – know what the hell is happening in Houston. Could that leave some contrarian value on the table? We take a look in our Houston Texans 2022 betting preview.
Houston Texans futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +30,000 |
| To win conference | +15,000 |
| To win division | +4,000 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 4.5 (Under -110) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +1,000 / No -2,000 |
Best futures bet: Over 4.5 wins (-110)
The Texans won four games in 2021 and three came inside the division. Given some consistency to the coaching promotions, Houston isn’t exactly starting from scratch – especially when it comes to the maturation of quarterback Davis Mills alongside Hamilton, who was the QB coach last year.
Mills played well considering he was a rookie starter thrust into action with a terrible team around him. The supporting cast isn’t much better in Year 2, but the Texans’ OK offensive line and commitment to generating something on the ground should take pressure off the second-year passer.
Let’s say Houston splits the AFC South schedule again. From there, the team has winnable matchups at Chicago, at New York and vs. Washington (if it can shake its non-conference curse). Given that their 2022 strength of schedule sits 19th and my QB SOS ranks the Texans’ opposing passers 26th, five wins isn’t a stretch for the patchwork Texans.
Houston Texans betting overview
What will win bets: Plenty of points
This was our same pro for betting Houston last season, with the Texans getting plenty of points from the oddsmakers week-to-week. They went 8-9 ATS in 2021 and caught double-digit dog spreads in 11 of their 17 games (5-6 ATS as DD dogs).
This year’s lookahead lines are a little less forgiving, with Houston catching 10 or more points in only three games but those spreads will puff up like me at the seafood buffet once the rubber hits the road and public perception sours (even more) on the Texans.
Houston showed fight inside NRG Stadium with a 5-4 ATS clip and a -7.4 average margin (compared to -13.1 on the road) while Mills owned a passer rating of 109.6 at home (sixth best in NFL). Football bettors will want to pick their spots when it comes to the Texans, using that extra padding of points to not necessarily “bet on” the Texans but more “bet against” whichever team stinks to high hell heading into a game with Houston.
What will lose bets: Lack of talent
That’s kind of a catch-all reason. It’s not an absolute void of talent in Houston, as there are some bright prospects helping form the foundation of this franchise after it was burnt to the ground in the wake of the Watson saga, but those standouts are few a far between.
As a unit, Houston is outmatched on both sides of the ball most weeks and the roster has all the depth of a mud puddle in the middle of the Texas summer, meaning injuries to key starters leave gaping cracks in the Texans’ schemes.
This team is leaning on young guys to grow up fast, which can be tough when you’re getting your ass waxed every Sunday. And even with plenty of positives in place for Mills, regression is the monster under the bed for most second-year QBs. Smith held an intense OTA session this summer but how long can he crank it up to 11 before that style of motivation becomes white noise as losses stack up?
More Covers NFL betting analysis
- Jacksonville Jaguars betting preview
- Indianapolis Colts betting preview
- Super Bowl odds
- NFL MVP odds
- Comeback Player of the Year odds
Houston Texans game-by-game odds
Just like last year’s lookahead lines, the Texans are point spread underdogs in every single game in 2022, depending on where you bet. Some books have a Week 17 home stand with Jacksonville as a pick’em while others have Houston +1. The Week 13 home stand versus Cleveland (and possibly Watson) is OTB at this time but the Browns will be road chalk regardless of QB.
The Texans are +275 frontrunners to boast the fewest wins in the NFL in 2022 and pay +1,600 to go a winless 0-17, which is pretty much what the point spreads are saying. Houston is getting a touchdown or more in nine contests and underdogs of +7 or higher finished 19-82 SU and 44-54-3 ATS last season (Houston went 2-11 SU and 6-7 ATS as a TD-plus pup).
There are some notable line differences out there if you want to shop around, including a few around key numbers, showing how bookies are split on their ratings of Houston in 2022: +3 to +3.5 at Chicago in Week 3, +5.5 to +6 vs. Tennessee in Week 9, +3 to +4 at N.Y. Giants in Week 10, +7 to +8 at Miami in Week 12, +8 to +10 at Dallas in Week 14, and +7.5 to +10 at Indianapolis in Week 10.
| 1 | vs. Indianapolis | +8 | 44 |
| 2 | @ Denver | +10.5 | 42 |
| 3 | @ Chicago | +3.5 | 42.5 |
| 4 | vs. L.A. Chargers | +8.5 | 47.5 |
| 5 | @ Jacksonville | +4 | 45.5 |
| 6 | BYE | ||
| 7 | @ Las Vegas | +8.5 | 48 |
| 8 | vs. Tennessee | +6 | 44 |
| 9 | vs. Philadelphia | +6.5 | 47 |
| 10 | @ N.Y. Giants | +4 | 44 |
| 11 | vs. Washington | +3 | 44 |
| 12 | @ Miami | +8 | 45 |
| 13 | vs. Cleveland | OTB | OTB |
| 14 | @ Dallas | +10 | 48 |
| 15 | vs. Kansas City | +10 | 48.5 |
| 16 | @ Tennessee | +9.5 | 43 |
| 17 | vs. Jacksonville | +1 | 45.5 |
| 18 | @ Indianapolis | +7.5 | 44.5 |
Houston Texans Pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
This is probably still the league’s worst roster, and an uninspiring coaching change to combine with that is not a recipe for success.
Catch the Hitman NFL Release Show on Covers every Thursday and Friday throughout the NFL season!
