The Pittsburgh Steelers are fresh off a bye week and flying to the West Coast to face the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. Despite struggling to move the ball on offense, the Steelers are 3-2 and will aim to upset a Rams squad that is 3-3 and coming off a lopsided victory vs. the Cardinals.
NFL odds opened with the Rams as 3-point home favorites and the Over/Under at 42.5 for this Week 7 showdown. Here are my best free Steelers vs. Rams free NFL picks and predictions for October 22.
Steelers vs Rams odds
Steelers vs Rams predictions
The Rams have an explosive attack with quarterback Matt Stafford airing it out to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. However, Stafford hasn’t been that efficient completing a modest 61.2% of his passes while ranking 22nd in the league in passer rating (83.5). He also tends to crumble when pressured and while you could say that for many quarterbacks, the dropoff for Stafford is especially extreme.
He completes 71.2% of his passes when kept clean in the pocket but that number plunges to just 39.4% under pressure. If there’s one thing this Pittsburgh team can do at a high level, it’s bring the heat. The Steelers are fourth in the league in pass rush grade according to PFF while the Rams are 28th in the league in pass blocking as a unit.
The Rams ground game had shown improvement in recent weeks but now starting running back Kyren Williams is sidelined by an ankle injury while backup Ronnie Rivers is on the IR. With the Rams trading away Cam Akers earlier this season, their RB cupboard is bare, and that lack of ground game won’t help them take pressure off Stafford.
That said, while the Steelers stop unit should be able to tee off on Stafford, their offense will struggle to move the chains. The Rams defense was gashed by two of league’s best teams in the 49ers and Eagles, but they held their other four opponents in check. They’re seventh in the league in opponent passer rating (76.7) and are coming off a game where they limited the Cardinals to just nine points.
The Steelers offense is 29th in the league in EPA and 32nd in success rate with offensive coordinator Matt Canada continuing to receive criticism as one of the worst play-callers in the league. Pittsburgh is expected to get back Dionte Johnson but he simply isn’t good enough to turn around this inept attack.
Quarterback Kenny Pickett is just 30th in the league in completion percentage (59.7%), 26th in yards per pass attempt (6.5), and 27th in passing yards per game (205.4). The Steelers haven’t been able to run the ball either and are a Bottom-5 team in rushing yards per game (80.4) and yards per carry (3.4).
With both quarterbacks set up for failure in this matchup, I’m going against the line movement and taking the Under.
My best bet: Under 44 (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Steelers vs Rams same-game parlay
Under 43.5Pickett Over 208.5 passing yardsKupp Over 92.5 receiving yards50% boost available
+839 +1,258 at FanDuel
Pickett has struggled this year, but he has still thrown for more than 220 yards in four of five games. He’s also getting back his best route runner in Johnson and parlaying this with the u43.5 results in a nice multiplier.
That’s also true for taking the Over on Kupp’s receiving yards. Kupp missed the first four weeks with a hamstring injury but hasn’t missed a beat since returning to the lineup in Week 5. He hauled in eight of 12 targets for 118 yards against the Eagles before catching seven passes for 148 yards with a positive game script last week against the Cards.
This is a high total for Kupp’s receiving yards, but he has gone Over this number in 26 of 34 games since Stafford joined the team in 2021. He should continue to see plenty of targets coming his way with the Rams decimated at RB and the Steelers not covering well on the outside.
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Steelers vs Rams spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Rams at -3 and while that spread hasn’t moved off that key number the Rams have gone from -105 at that line to -115. Meanwhile, the total opened at 42.5 and has ticked up to 44.
The Steelers beat the Ravens 17-10 before their bye week to improve to 3-2 SU and ATS. With an ugly offense and a solid defense, the Steelers have played in plenty of low-scoring games lately. In their last 10 games, they’ve seen only one other total above 41. That was in Week 3 against the Raiders, a contest that also had an O/U of 44 and ended with 41 points scored.
The Rams beat the Cardinals 26-9 last week and are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS. To be fair their three losses came against the 49ers, Bengals, and Eagles, three of the four teams that made the Conference Championship games last season.
