Any parent, sibling, friend, coach, or teacher who has ever interacted with anyone between the ages of 13 and 18 is well aware that teenagers can be the most infuriating people on the planet.
Why? Because they know just enough about life to be dangerous.
NFL bettors share a similar state of mind with those fresh-faced, know-it-all teens in Week 3. After watching and wagering on two weeks of NFL action, they think they’ve got it all figured out.
Well, I’ll tell you what I told my teenage son when he said he knew better: “What you don’t know could fill a book.” And in the case of NFL Week 3 odds, a sportsbook. More specifically, the sportsbooks’ pockets.
If Week 2 wasn’t already a harsh lesson for the betting public — with teams drawing 60% or more of bets going 3-9 ATS — Week 3 outcomes could be just as cruel. That is, unless you check your “big teenage feelings” at the door and stay skeptical about early-season results.
I do just that with my NFL picks for today.
Last week: 3-0 ATSSeason: 4-2 ATS
NFL Week 3 picks and predictions
- Chargers +2.5
- Bears +1.5
- Vikings +2.5
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers pick
The Los Angeles Chargers are coming off an easy win at Carolina in Week 2, and rather than put almost 10,000 miles of travel on the odometer, new head coach Jim Harbaugh has kept his club on the East Coast ahead of Sunday’s road matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Bolts are at sleep-away camp in Charlotte this week, which can work wonders for a team with such a drastic overhaul in staff and roster. Players are away from off-field activities and forced to focus on football, plus it sounds like Harbaugh has a family game night planned. Nothing brings the guys together like a heated game of Yahtzee.
The elephant in the room, and the reason why the Chargers are getting as many as +2.5, is the health of Justin Herbert. He toughed out a leg injury last weekend and initial exams were all negative, leading us to believe he’ll be under center on Sunday.
That gives Los Angeles a significant edge at quarterback, considering Pittsburgh is likely stuck with Justin Fields again. The Steelers have scored only one touchdown in the opening two games, racked up a collective 32 first downs (23rd), and sit 25th in Offensive DVOA.
The Steelers defense has had to pick up that slack, and while the stop unit has been disruptive, they haven’t faced the stiffest competition in Atlanta and Denver. That shows in the Defensive DVOA ratings, with Pittsburgh sitting 10th despite allowing a total of only 16 points.
You could say the same for Los Angeles, which checked Las Vegas and Carolina to a combined 13 points. However, the advanced metrics are much kinder, ranking L.A. tops in EPA allowed per play and No. 5 in DVOA.
A run-heavy attack helps out the stop unit by grinding out gains and chewing up possession time. Greg Roman’s playbook sits Top 10 in many advanced rushing stats, and he knows this Steelers defense all too well from his tenure in Baltimore.
Healthy Herbert or not, the Chargers will ground and pound in Pittsburgh.
PICK: Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 (-118 at Pinnacle)
Chicago Bears (+1.5) at Indianapolis Colts pick
OK, so Caleb Williams isn’t the second coming of Peyton Manning. But he’s sure as hell not far behind Indianapolis Colts’ QB Anthony Richardson.
Richardson, who has just a handful of starts over Williams, sits near the bottom of the QB rankings along with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft. The big difference is, Richardson doesn’t have the Chicago Bears defense backing him up.
The Bears stop unit has picked up where it left off in 2023 when a mid-season shift (prompted by the addition of Montez Sweat) boosted Chicago among the most disruptive defenses in the land.
Through two games in 2024, that group is Top 10 in the “holy grail” analytics and continues to generate game-changing plays with four takeaways, six sacks, and a pressure rate of 31%. The Bears are also slamming the door on third downs (25% — third lowest) and holding foes to the fourth-lowest success rate per play in the land.
Richardson’s wowed with his big arm but also made bettors shake their heads with four interceptions and two fumbles (not lost) in the first two outings of 2024. He’s going to turn the ball over against Chicago. It’s going to happen. Perhaps the question should be, “How many times?”
As for Williams, the rookie has faced two very solid defenses in Houston and Tennessee, so let’s dial down the “bust” talk. Former scout Daniel Jeremiah of the NFL Network had a good breakdown of Williams’ work against the Texans on “The Rich Eisen Show”.
He called out positive plays that went unnoticed and celebrated just how tough Williams is, considering he was absolutely blasted by the Texans’ pass rush (seven sacks, 11 QB hits). The Colts won’t bring nearly the same smoke in Week 3, and Williams hopefully has veteran WR Keenan Allen back in action against an Indy defense ranked 29th in EPA allowed per dropback.
PICK: Chicago Bears +1.5 (-110 at BetRivers)
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Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) pick
I knew Sam Darnold was better than folks gave him credit for. No, really. I did.
Go read my Minnesota Vikings team preview from the summer in which I profess, “I’m one of the rare Sam Darnold fans out there”. There are definitely more of us now that the Minnesota Vikings are 2-0 SU and ATS, including an upset win over San Francisco in Week 2.
Darnold lovefest aside, Minnesota’s defense is the real star of the show. Brian Flores’ aggressive approach is disrupting rivals with a blitz-happy attack that has cooked up a pressure rate of 36.6% per dropback, along with a league-high 11 sacks.
The Houston Texans’ pass protection has been a game of musical chairs in C.J. Stroud’s time as QB, with injuries altering the offensive line constantly in 2023. That continues to be the case to start 2024, with center Juice Scruggs (one of the best names in sports) potentially missing a second straight game. That could have the second-year standout under fire and shorten the playbook for an explosive Houston aerial attack
Stroud was sacked three times versus Chicago last Sunday night, making it seven sacks through two weeks, while the pass protection allows him to feel pressure on almost 29% of dropbacks. Adding to those woes could be a toothless run game, with RBs Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce both injured, allowing the Vikes to tee off with extra rushers.
On the Vikings offense, stud WR Justin Jefferson is trending toward playing after suffering a quad injury in Week 2, with Kevin O’Connell giving positive responses when asked about his star’s status. Minnesota could also have fellow WR Jordan Addison in action for Week 3 after he missed last week due to a bum ankle.
I’d love to get a field goal with the home pup, but I don’t think this spread will get there after injury reports come out later in the week.
PICK: Minnesota Vikings +2.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
